Just some idle musings on this subject.
I am just about over all of this. I hate having to prepare myself for both Donald Trump winning and Trump losing. I know that the race has, in real terms, been pretty stable since about July. But I am someone who simply loves to run scenarios and it seems to me that there are three solid scenarios at this point:
Hillary Clinton Wins, But Without A Mandate
At this point, this seems like the most likely scenario. The race seems to have hit a stable state and it’s possible that we’ll gently cruise into a kind of a meh win for Clinton where she definitely does not have a mandate and we have four years of essentially the same. Four more years of it seeming as though the very fabric of the Republic is slowly coming unglued.
Trump wins the Electoral Vote, But Loses The Popular Vote
Another scenario, although as of right now much less likely, is that somehow, magically, Trump manages to win enough Electoral College votes, but because of the huge landslide in the popular vote for Clinton in places like California, he doesn’t win the popular vote. This would happen if the race got a lot tighter. One reason I am a little nervous that this might happen is there are too many outliers who are sounding the alarm. There are too many people suggesting that Trump could, in fact, win for me not to at least believe this is a serious option.
No One Gets 270 In The Electoral College
Trump Wins In The House Simply Because Vichy Republicans Have No Spine
This is, by far, the most likely sub-scenario. This is what would probably happen. We would have a lot of post-Election turmoil, but in the end, the Vichy Republicans would just vote for Trump because they did not want to alienate the base. So, there would be little, if not surprise, should this it come down to the House voting for president. There might be a little bit of a surprise in the Vice Presidential pick because the Senate might decide to show some gravitas and pick one of its own as a fig leaf for the system screwing over a Democratic Presidential candidate for the second time in a generation.
Or maybe not. Maybe even that wouldn’t happen given how divided America is these days.
Trump Lobbies Electors
This would very much be in step with Trump’s behavior to date. It seems like something he would do. I could see him using the vast amount of free publicity that he gets just by being himself to lobby the few dozen people he would need to actually force himself through the Electoral College should no one get 270. This would mean the end of the Electoral College, but he wouldn’t care. All he would care is if he won and if he did manage to win because of this, it would be a devastating blow to the Republic as we know it.
Evan McMullin Becomes President As Part Of Grand Compromise
This is only appealing to me because I’m a presidential politics nerd and it would be fun-interesting for something like this to happen. There is something very fun and appealing with the idea of there would be an epic post-Election Day struggle for the presidency between Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and Evan McMullin.
But him winning should the election be thrown into the House and Senate is no sure thing. It would be just kind of, sort of, within the realm of possibility. By proposing this, I’m not saying I’m a fan of his political views, but it would be kind of neat. I might live to regret him becoming president should it happen, but at this specific moment him being president is something I could tolerate a huge amount more than Trump.