I talk about a wide range of things in this one, from Ilana Glazer of Broad City tweeting to me, essentially, to “shut up and write,” to Donald Trump losing his sense of humor over the years, to AR and VR to me continuing to work on the outline of my novel. I also talk some about the difference in novel communities and #screenplay communities. In general this one is pretty god and worth watching.
Here is another hour of me talking about the future of augmented reality and virtual reality. This is a pretty good discussion, I think. It’s well worth your time. I am not an expert by any means, but I believe I have thought out this situation pretty well. It’s worth your time, if nothing else.
I am not an expert in either virtual reality or augmented reality, but I like to daydream, run scenarios so here are some idle thoughts about what these technologies might look like in 20 years. I am working on the assumption that we can extrapolate from today’s “telepresence” some idea of where things will be at that point.
First, I believe in 20 years it will be augmented reality, not virtual reality that most people will experience on a day to day basis. Virtually everyone will be wearing either AR/VR glasses or contacts, but they will toggle back and forth between the two as needed.
I believe in 20 years, there won’t be phones, laptops, tablets or PCs. Everything will revolve around your AR/VR headset. No longer will there be any distance between you and media. So, instead of having a Facebook profile, you will have virtual profile that surrounds you as you walk around. You will never leave the network and if you meet a Facebook friend, you will be able to interact with their profile. So, instead of pulling up someone’s Facebook profile when you see them in the neighborhood, you will interact with their profile on a social level when you greet them. You will be able to, say, look at their kid’s first steps in a virtual, immersive manner simply by touching an item that is floating around them.
One interesting thing I predict is movies and video games will become one and the same. Instead of playing a video game or seeing a movie in a darken theatre, you will go to an auditorium or even a warehouse size building and interact directly with characters in a movie as well as audience members. The traditional concept of a movie will become quite quaint to the average movie-goer. I could see traditional movies becoming something akin to vinyl. The entire movie-TV industry will be upended in this new AR / VR world.
Instead of sitting down and watching TV, you will simply toggle to the VR feature of your goggles — that you wear all the time — and you will have a completely immersive experience. Desktop metaphor will no longer exist.
The issue, of course, will be how expensive will these all powerful VR / AR goggles be. I predict that they will initially hover around the $2,000 price point, but slowly drift down to $1,000 or even $500 given that you probably will have a data contract like you currently do with your phone.
I predict we might see another economic bubble at some point in the next 20 years as we shift towards away from “broadband” media towards “immersive” media. I suspect that the “immersive” Web will be how Web. 4.0 or 5.0 will be marketed to the masses. Any number of different industries will be either shaped or destroyed and rebuilt from the ground up over the next 20 years as the immersive Web grows in power and popularity.
Apple, Google, Facebook and even maybe SnapChat will be at the forefront of all of this given existing trends. But given that processing power doubles every 18 months, and we’re barely in “bluesky” territory at this point, there is more than enough time for new companies to explode and skyrocket to success.
If you want to watch about an hour of me talking about all of this, thinking it out along the way, watch the below. It’s actually pretty interesting.
by Shelton Bumgarner
It seems as though growing numbers of people aren’t live streaming anymore. It seems as though some of the air is coming out of the live streaming bubble. But it seems as though it is at least possible we’re in something of a holding pattern until virtual reality takes off.
When virtual reality becomes practical to the masses, then I think a lot of people who don’t really see the point of “telepresence” will understand it at last and start to use it. There is simply so much you can do with virtual reality. There are so many different ways to use virtual reality that it should be pretty interesting to see how exactly it will go down.
It is equally interesting that people aren’t as interested in live streaming services like Blab and Periscope. And, yet, I think because of its user base, if nothing else, I think Facebook Live Video will be a success, at least relative to Periscope.
I think a lot of people don’t really “get” Periscope. They don’t understand why they should sit around and talk to themselves when they can, like, talk to actual people. But, as I mentioned, virtual reality is probably going to be the thing that brings “telepresence” to the mainstream.
So, we probably have about two years to wait until that happens. Don’t know what will happen to Blab and Periscope in the meantime.